Professional Pilot, September 2016

Airbus H160 JMR TD 14 PROFESSIONAL PILOT September 2016 cept model aimed at replacing the Super Puma Given the series grounding and its troubled recent history Airbus has no choice but to press on with a replacement plan While the Super Puma will likely be cleared to fly with relatively inexpensive design changes and possibly none there appear to be significant operator concerns that may mitigate against further large purchases of the type And the Puma Super Puma family is about 60 years old anyway so its time for a replacement The X6 will be Airbus 1st civil rotorcraft with FBW controls Like Bells 525 its one of the few large models designed initially for civil customers rather than the military market This too represents an interesting change since the military market used to lead the way for the civil market The militarys big future problem Another problem with new rotorcraft technology development is that the military side of the industry is in a difficult position both in terms of new developments and in the direction of the market itself If the current market downturn hobbles new civil market development the military market wont take up the slack Right now the US Armys Future Vertical Lift FVL program is absorbing the overwhelming bulk of new rotorcraft research and development funding FVL has very ambitious goals 1 It wants to reinvent the very idea of rotorcraft with a completely new propulsion concept 2 It aims to reinvent Army aviation with procurement of 2000 to 4000 production aircraft to replace the AH64 UH60 CH47 and other helicopters The new models would likely reinvent Navy Marine and Air Force rotary wing aviation too 3 FVL would mean the restructuring of the vertical lift industrial base since selecting 1 or 2 contractors wouldnt leave much work for the loser or losers Yet there are valid reasons to think FVL will fail For example there are serious doubts about the Armys willingness to pay a large premium for speed For over half a century helicopters have traveled at a maximum of about 150 kts FVL through its Joint Multi Role Technology Demonstrator JMRTD predecessor competition aims to create a completely new rotorcraft architecture to permit 220 to 250 kt speeds However FVL acquisition and operating costs will almost certainly be between 40 and 70 greater than for current helicopters With the Bell Boeing V22 tiltrotor the only fast new rotorcraft to actually be built and fielded the cost premium has been about 100 greater than a traditional helicopter The Marines and Special Operations Command consider this a worthwhile premium to pay because amphibious and special operations benefit highly from increased range and more speed But most Army missions emphasize payload more than those other qualities Thats a problem Assuming a fixed procurement budget if the Army buys a faster system with a 50 cost premium just half the current premium associated with the V22 then the service will only get 2 3rds as much lift compared with traditional rotorcraft The militarys requirements process uses both accountants and engineers With FVL as with many aerospace programs its possible that these 2 groups do not regularly talk to each other Another reason to think FVL will fail is the inadequate time allowed for the reinvention of vertical flight The FVL acquisition program is expected to start in 2019 Yet over the past 4 decades there have been many false starts on the road to faster rotorcraft The V22 tiltrotor has been a limited success but there have been many failures too So it is quite unlikely that the correct way forward for a new rotorcraft concept can be determined in the next 5 years Moreover the gap between the current generation and FVL will have profound consequences for Army Aviation and for the industrial base The current generation of military rotorcraft programs peaked a few years ago with procurement funding for the AH64E CH47F Gs UH60M MH60R S and V22 programs falling by about 50 in value between 2011 and 2018 Most of these programs will be dead by the next decade Assuming FVL deliveries dont start until 2028 a very optimistic assumption what will the Army and the industry do during that 8 10 year procurement and production gap This market problem is already showing up in the numbers Last year world military rotorcraft deliveries fell 167 by value from 2014 Were expecting no improvement over the next few years and further declines after 2018 This is important too because the military side of the industry typically provides 70 to 75 of total rotorcraft demand by value The best we can say for the military helicopter market is that it isnt falling nearly as rapidly as the civil segment By the next decade the helicopter industry will have access to better turboshafts better cockpit displays and better sensors and self protection systems Inserting these components onto existing military platforms will offer much better performance even for todays airframes with minimal cost penalty creating a better way forward than FVL But these technologies wont do much to aid the civil market Indeed in the case of displays diagnostics and other technologies they may be migrated over from the civil market This industry clearly cant count on new technology from the military market or on the military market for a jumpstart The 2nd half of 2016 looks set to be the leanest time for the civil helicopter market in over 10 years If were lucky and our forecast is correct well get back to 2009 2014 levels by the end of the decade Airbus X6 Richard Aboulafia is VP Analysis at Teal Group Corp an aviation and defense market intelligence and consulting company He has tracked the business aircraft market for over 20 years