Professional Pilot, September 2016

Given these diverse market drivers and given the enduring nature of the oil and gas downturn its very difficult to forecast the civil helicopter market But we can make a few assumptions We can assume that oil prices have hit a floor and will begin slowly recovering next year And we can also say that the consensus view on world economic growth is correct with growth rates gradually strengthening over the next few years And with these assumptions Teal Group believes the market will hit bottom this year with a gradual recovery through the end of the decade But the events of the last 12 months clearly indicate that economic shocks can quickly derail this market 12 PROFESSIONAL PILOT September 2016 Another concerning aspect of this dropping market is the number of new models being developed in anticipation of new growth This is particularly true in the oil and gas exploration and support segment In 2014 deliveries began of AgustaWestlands AW189 a larger growth derivative of the AW139 along with Airbuss all new H175 which is in a similar size class So far delivery numbers for these new models have been quite low a total of 37 of both types have been delivered through early 2016 In 2017 or 2018 these new models will be joined by Bells 525 which is in almost the exact same size and price class as the other 2 models After the 525 Airbuss H160 will arrive in 2018 It first flew in June 2015 and in 2014 Airbus had re sized and re positioned it making it less of a Dauphin replacement and more of a larger H155 replacement It is aimed directly at the same segment as the AW139 the original model that developed the super medium twin oil and gas segment Airbus has even billed the H160 as the AW139 killer Meanwhile China wants to develop its own product in this segment with its own derivative of the H175 known as the AC352 This proliferation of new models is the inevitable consequence of too many manufacturers chasing business in the same market segment one that is now in a serious slump There is little hope of any serious change in the industrys structure so overcapacity will be with us for as long as the market stays down Product and program problems Overcapacity fears arent helped by product safety and new technology development program problems These issues are impacting the highest value products in the industry Of the 4 civil manufacturers 3 can be said to have had an equally bad last 12 months In October 2015 Leonardos 2nd AW609 tiltrotor prototype suffered a fatal accident Italys ANSV accident investigation agency found that flight control problems played a role in this crash and AW609 flight tests were halted However Leornardo says that just minor modifications are needed and in August the 1st prototype resumed flight testing in helicopter and airplane modes The current plan is for AW609 service entry in 2018 It was supposed to be 2017 before the crash This represents yet another delay for a program that was originally intended to enter service when it was coowned by AgustaWestland and Bell around 2002 Bell left the program in June 2011 While Leonardo claims 60 commitments it is far from clear how many will become firm orders and even this number has been static or declining for well over a decade In April an Airbus H225 Super Puma operated by CHC suffered a disastrous rotor separation killing 13 crewmembers Norwegian accident investigators have subsequently uncovered evidence of metal fatigue and bearing race disintegration in the gearbox This may have resulted from damage incurred in a road accident that took place in 2015 before it was installed in the helicopter As of this writing 80 of all H225 EC225 AS332s are grounded which of course meant that CHCs rotorcraft disposal plan would emphasize and prioritize the companys Super Puma fleet The present Super Puma fleet grounding comes just a few years after a 9 month fleet grounding in 2012 2013 which followed 2 aircraft crashing into the North Sea These accidents were blamed on corrosion in the bevel gear vertical shaft which Airbus re designed and certified in 2014 In July Bells new 525 Relentless crashed on a test flight killing 2 company pilots This was 1 of 3 flight test helicopters and was destroyed in a post crash fire Certification of the 525 had been scheduled for 2017 but this will likely be delayed depending on the outcome of the current crash investigation The 525 will be the 1st commercial helicopter with flyby wire FBW controls In May the FAA said the FBW control system would need special conditions for certification implying a delay to the certification program in any event It is also the largest civil model Bell has ever attempted to develop Given the state of the market and the overcapacity were seeing within the large and medium large segment and given these serious problems with new product development it is highly likely that manufacturers will begin to re think their willingness to invest in future technology At the very least it is likely that they will take a far more rigorous view of which technologies pay their way on new programs The morphing of Airbuss X4 a highly ambitious concept plane to the firmly launched H160 a much more conventional design speaks to that process The only certain new product launch is Airbuss X6 a con Leonardo AW189 Airbus H175 AC352 Leonardo AW609 tiltrotor Bell 525 Relentless