Professional Pilot, September 2016
POSITION HOLD an editorial opinion Decline of the civil helicopter market A sudden and hopefully temporary collapse Civil helicopter deliveries by manufacturer through 2016 and projected sales through 2025 2006 2010 2014 2018 2008 2012 2016 2020 2007 2011 2015 2019 2009 2013 2017 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 T he civil helicopter market downturn that began last year has turned into a disaster for the industry Delivery numbers this year are set to fall by as much as 1 3rd by value largely due to the oil and gas market downturn The best that can be said about this situation is that the problem has been worsened by several specific and isolated events implying that the market will start to recover after these shocks Accelerating downward Looking at the recent history of the market it can be summarized in 2 distinct phases During the first period 2003 2008 the market was transformed by a growth spurt that took it from 3 billion per year in deliveries to a peak of 66 billion all in constant 2016 dollars The primary drivers were strong economic growth coupled with record oil prices During the 2nd phase 2009 2014 the world recession hit and the market basically went nowhere stuck in a band between 5 billion and 6 billion On the positive side unlike business aircraft civil helicopters managed to stay on a reasonably stable market plateau However there was a clear downshift last year The market fell 106 to 53 billion in deliveries down from 2014 s 59 billion By the start of 2016 there were clear signs that worse was yet to come In early August the General Aviation Manufacturers Association GAMA released its 1st half delivery numbers confirming that the civil helicopter industry 10 PROFESSIONAL PILOT September 2016 had taken a serious blow Piston helicopter unit deliveries fell 101 from the 1st half of 2015 while turbine models fell 183 for a unit total decline of 161 But GAMAs helicopter industry billings showed a decline by a massive 325 a clear indication that the market for larger models primarily used by the oil and gas industry were falling at a much faster pace than the rest of the market The GAMA numbers include military models but these programs tend to be far more stable By Richard Aboulafia VP Teal Group Bell Airbus Other Sikorsky Leonardo 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2016 billions Sikorsky S92
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