Professional Pilot, October 2019

VIEWPOINT an editorial opinion What will business aviation or private aviation mean in the future Annual corp jet sales units Chart 1 New corporate jet sales US 800 700 600 400 200 B y traditional methods of measuring the market business aviation has been stagnant for the past 10 years According to GAMA total billings for new corporate jet sales barely increased from 19474000000 in 2009 to 20564000000 in 2018 Thats an average annual growth rate of only 06 Just pacing inflation would have this number at 2 Converting these statistics over to unit sales of new jets we see the expected pattern After the sugar rush of the mid 2000s sales have been flat Underlying these sales statistics are the utilization numbers As Chart 2 shows traditional business corporate aircraft usage is languishing And these numbers look even worse when viewed as the annual usage on each corporate jet in the fleet Given the headwinds our market has faced and continues to face none of this should be surprising As I have written about before MRO costs have gone up at a much higher rate than in other cost sectors The advent of platforms like Skype GoToMeeting and similar have reduced the need for face to face communication Younger people have become comfortable living and working in a virtual environment Airlines and airports are starting to understand the value and profit potential of high end travelers and are installing programs to capture some of this business And the list goes on But does any or all of this spell gloom doom and the demise of private aviation Wrong question The right question is what will private aviation look like 20 years from now Recent surveys of young people those entering 12 PROFESSIONAL PILOT October 2019 and starting to become a force in business indicate an appreciation for business aviation They like the convenience and flexibility but not at a cost to the environment They dont seem to care about ownership They want the ability to book a travel arrangement from their door to their destination with a few taps on their phones screen They want it to be safe but dont expect this to be strictly a function of a piloted or pilotless vehicle They believe advances in environmental science digitization artificial intelligence hybrid propulsion technology and the likes will increase the availability and sustainability of private aviation So if we shake all this up in a bag and dump it on the table what does the resulting private aviation business model look like Thats simple it will be built around the concept of service not equipment With the changes that have been going on within flight departments charter and management companies and the advent of apps like Victor we have been headed in this direction anyway In some form or fashion 20 or 30 years from now Mr Head of Engineering will pull up Get Me There on his Xeno Phone and book transport from 211 Conklin Drive USA to 1333 Shore Road England He will mount his Bokode ticket to the ring he wears will be picked up at his door in a PDB private driverless bubble dropped at the hypersonic maglev train whisked to the airport enter his private suite on the 799 Supersonic Dreammaker flown to the destination airport board the city bound eVTOL dropped at the terminal where he is picked up By Bob Rockwood Managing Partner Bristol Associates Year 900 500 300 100 0 2009 2013 2011 2015 2017 2010 2014 2012 2016 2018 Data courtesy JETNET