Professional Pilot, October 2018

Surface painted runway marking critical factor in RIs To better direct mitigation strategies it would also be helpful to know if airlines or general aviation numbers are changing So to get a more accurate picture of what is really going on with RIs one has to look at rates of RIs per million or other number of operations This takes care of the potential for changes in RIs due to fluctuations in traffic Taking a gander at the FAAs data in 2007 the rate of serious RIs was 0393 per million operations while in 2017 it was 013 per million It can now be seen why the media and the FAA are so elated But back up to 2016 and the rate of RIs was 038 almost the same as in 2007 In fact the best rate 0118 RIs per million operations occurred back in 2010 90 PROFESSIONAL PILOT October 2018 Non movement area Taxiway edge marking Do not cross and the rates have been uphill since then Evaluating the numbers using a simple moving average it can clearly be seen that the RI rates have been on the rise since 2011 even with 2017 being such a good year Statistical analysis to the rescue Unfortunately statistical analysis of the data is scarce and seems limited to pipe smoking tweed wearing researchers at universities Yet some analysis is called for as the industry needs to know if such gyrations in RIs are real increases or decreases Or are we essentially staying at the same levels of RIs yet are seeing some normal fluctuations Without boring the readership with details there is a weak negative correlation between the RI rate and years starting in 2007 and ending in 2017 This means that there is a minor decrease over time detected The results are however not statistically significant If one takes out the data from 2017 there is a negligible increase in RI rates that is also not statistically significant What does all this mean The RI rates appear to be relatively flat So no panic is required that the rates are going up but no parties are warranted for reductions in rates either Sometimes less is better It is a commendable fact that the number of serious RIs is down With each serious RI there is the potential for a Tenerife style accident As an industry we cannot afford even a chance of something so deadly yet preventable to happen again With that said the numbers of category C and D events have obviously increased boosting the total numbers of RIs in recent years These cannot be ignored It could easily be imagined how frequent lower category events could one day turn into serious ones The results of this closer look into RI data can be perceived as good and bad The good news is we are not seeing a significant uptick in RI rates Contrarily there has not been a substantial decrease either Considering that the total number of pilot induced RIs is up it should serve as a reminder to be diligent when operating in the airport environment spend more time with airport diagrams utilize all available technology and to perhaps review recent changes to airport markings lighting and signage Considering that RIs are primarily a function of human error all stakeholders should up their game to help do their part to push RI rates lower David Ison PhD has 32 years of experience flying aircraft ranging from light singles to widebody jets Currently he is a graduate school professor at Northcentral University Taxiway Taxiway hold marking Hold marking for land and hold short operations Stop bar ILS hold Vehicle lanes zipper style Terminal Legend In pavement runway guard lights Elevated runway guard lights Stop Bar Centerline lead on lights Clearance bar lights Position marking 4