Professional Pilot, May 2019

POSITION HOLD an editorial opinion Modern threats to aviation A s we look to the next 10 20 and 30 years what are the biggest game changers related to corporate or private aviation Cultural changes in attitude is a big one Wait What Not greenhouse gases Not personnel shortages Not exponential cost increases Not overcrowded airspace Nope Personnel shortages will straighten themselves out if the economics justify it If aviation can pay enough people will work there Cost increases Same answer Overcrowding This one is being solved with technology Greenhouse gases is a bit hazy because this problem is not as easy to define and quantify Hence we have believers and deniers evidence that can be disputed or at least argued and a political football that just gets tossed around and never really lands anywhere So lets start this discussion with some facts The burning of fossil fuels results in CO2 emissions Specifically aviation fuel emits 315 grams of CO2 per gram of fuel If we turn to Conklin deDeckers Business Aviation CO2 calculator we see this converts to a Boeing BBJ emitting some 726 metric tonnes of CO2 per hour A metric tonne equates to 1000000 grams so we are talking about CO2 emissions in the range of 7260000 grams per a BBJ flight hour If the plane is carrying 12 passengers the CO2 emissions per passenger per hour equates to 605000 grams 8 PROFESSIONAL PILOT May 2019 A BBJ is essentially a 737 700 For the sake of this discussion well assume total emissions to be the same The 737 700 is typically set up for 149 passengers and average load factors are somewhere around 65 so lets assume 100 passengers So on a per passenger basis CO2 emissions per passenger per hour equate to 72600 Now we could argue all day about the benefits that accrue to these additional emissions per passenger that result from private flying The arguments for this are well known But heres the thing most of these arguments both pro and con dont affect other people but CO2 emissions do And heres the other thing survey upon survey points to the fact that younger people those of the millennial or centennial generations look upon climate change as the major megatrend affecting aviations future So to my original supposition it is the cultural change in attitude that takes precedence Without it nothing else could ever change Even recognizing that the shoreline at the beach house is 10 ft narrower than last year wont stir up action unless attitudinally its accepted that climate change is a thing What physical changes will take place in response to this attitude change remain to be seen They may take the form of resisting the use of private aircraft More likely they will drive manufacturers to produce lower emitting products And certainly these changes in attitude will By Bob Rockwood Managing Partner Bristol Associates Double Bubble D8 aircraft design could drastically reduce greenhouse emissions It was presented in April 2010 to NASA for studies into advanced aircraft that could enter service in the 2030 2035 timeframe