Professional Pilot, March 2016

70000 50000 DoD and public agency unmanned aircraft systems Source Unmanned Aircraft System UAS Service Demand 2015 2035 US Department of Transportation John A Volpe National Transportation Systems Center p 6 PROFESSIONAL PILOT March 2016 97 Natural S curve growth in aviation but for whatever reason cannot overcome the other hurdles Basically UAS could make it cheaper less personally dangerous and less physically demanding to take part in actively controlling an aircraft With a greater pool of the population potentially qualified to operate UAS the question then becomes one of access The trajectory of technology and ever increasing UAS capabilities indicate that there is and will continue to be an exponential increase in the use of unmanned aircraft by the public and civil sectors The unmanned nature of UAS makes these aircraft well suited for what the fire services commonly call the dull dirty and dangerous missions Indeed the list of possible uses is long including agriculture disaster management infrastructure monitoring power pipe lines roads rail law enforcement telecommunications media mapping imaging weather and environmental monitoring resource exploration transport the list goes on Figures 1 and 2 show the expected dramatic increase in UAS use especially in the commercial state and local sectors According to the US Department of Transportations Unmanned Aircraft System UAS Service Demand 2015 to 2035 the list of potential customers is huge There are literally hundreds of utility pipeline and transportation companies with hundreds of thousands of miles of pipe and rail lines that need to be monitored In addition there are well over 18000 law enforcement units and 27000 fire departments that could also benefit from using UAS UAS industry growth means more jobs This exploding use of UAS will drive the need for significant numbers of personnel to be trained certified and employed mostly in the civilian sector As shown in figures 3 and 4 the growth potential here is enormous as the expected economic growth from 2015 to 2025 is over 82 billion with 100000 new jobs added to the US economy Government agency military commercial and industrial uses will require support similar to that needed for manned flight UAS require control stations communication links support charging stations parts maintenance cargo systems and launch and recovery equipment Thus increasing numbers of trained certified and experienced people manufacturers training systems contractors operators and the like will have to come from a larger segment of the population As more people are involved in this business it is only natural that this growth will facilitate the transfer of UAS to the general population for more recreational utilitarian and personal uses Price point is another major difference between UAS and other similar aviation technologies eg manned aircraft that will facilitate this transfer All this public civil and recreational activity will drive increased investment and research to make them more dependable capable safe and affordable Combining a greater pool of the population potentially qualified to operate UAS with increased access to reasonably priced unmanned aircraft will put the control of an aircraft really within the reach 180000 140000 Source The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States March 2013 Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International p 6 2015 2019 2023 2030 2016 2020 2027 2024 2031 2017 2021 2028 2025 2032 2034 2018 2022 2029 2026 2033 2035 80000 60000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Number of vehicles Year Total DoD Total state and local Total federal public agency Total public number of active pilots in the United States is just under 600000 less than 02 of population where active means that person has a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate These numbers actually declined by 03 from 2001 to 2015 with an expected increase of only a 01 in the next 10 years Over 40 of active pilots are ATP or commercial multi instrument rated leaving the number of students recreational sport private glider and rotor pilots at only 01 of the population These numbers show that flying is still a very exclusive activity often requiring a long expensive road to even a basic rating Ironically the unmanned part of UAS can help change this It is only logical that the drastically reduced physiological requirements for UAS operation will lower the health training certification experience and currency levels and costs significantly below what is needed to become even a private pilot In fact lower requirements should make it significantly easier for entry into the commercial forhire realm especially for those who desire a career Annual UAS sales for agriculture public safety other markets 2025 2015 2019 2023 2016 2020 2024 2017 2021 2018 2022 160000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Agriculture Public safety Other